Your view of the economy right now depends almost entirely on where you get your information.
If you’re scrolling social media, you’re getting a cocktail of panic, politics, and people selling you something. If you’re watching cable news, you’re getting whatever narrative keeps you watching. And if you’re checking the stock market, you’re getting a number that has almost nothing to do with your life.
I can’t control any of that. What I can do is show you what the hard data actually says. And this week, the data said something worth paying attention to.
The wholesale numbers just came in.
Annual wholesale inflation hit 6% — the highest since December 2022. The single-month jump was 1.4%, the steepest since March 2022.
Here’s why that matters to your kitchen table: wholesale prices take 60 to 90 days to reach your grocery store shelf. So April’s spike shows up in your cart in July and August.
The USDA is already projecting beef and veal up 6.3%, sugar and sweets up 8.1%, and fresh vegetables up 4.8%. One in four American adults is already putting groceries on a credit card and carrying a balance. At 28% APR.
This isn’t opinion. This is Bureau of Labor Statistics data and USDA projections.
Read the full wholesale inflation timeline →
Now here’s the part that makes this personal.
When you hear how great the stock market is doing, you might think you’re getting a different message than what I’m telling you. You’re not. You’re getting someone else’s message.
The wealthiest 10% own 93% of stock market wealth. When the market rises, they feel richer — and they spend accordingly. Their wage growth outpaces inflation. Their home equity is strong. They’re booking summer vacations and Disney trips.
That’s real. But it’s not your economy if you’re earning between $56,000 and $170,000 a year.
Bank of America economists have identified what they’re calling an “E-shaped economy.” Not the K-shape you’ve heard about. Three tiers:
Top 19% — thriving, 5.6% wage growth
Middle 52% — treading water, 2% wage growth
Bottom 28% — drowning, 1% wage growth
The top 20% accounts for nearly 60% of all consumer spending. That’s why the economy “looks fine.” Their spending carries the numbers. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment just hit 48.2 — the lowest in 74 years of University of Michigan tracking. Credit card debt is at a record $1.28 trillion. And one-third of middle-class families can’t cover basic necessities.
People will skip a doctor’s appointment before they’ll let anyone see them struggling.
Read the E-shaped economy breakdown →
So what do you do with this?
Here’s what I’ve learned after decades in this work: when the news only feels bad, the natural human response is to spend your way past it. Pretend everything’s fine, swipe the card, deal with it later. That instinct makes things worse every single time.
The move isn’t panic. It’s not denial either. It’s understanding.
What does the data actually say? Not what does Twitter say. Not what does your brother-in-law say. What do the numbers say? And then you make an informed decision that works best for you.
Here’s what I’m personally doing.
I’m pulling back on spending right now. Not out of fear. Out of math.
When suppliers start to panic — and they will — prices come down. The best deals in any economic squeeze go to people who have cash when everyone else is drowning.
And if you look at that E-shaped economy data, a lot of people who have never had financial problems are primed for an unpleasant first experience.
I don’t want to be another voice screaming that the sky is falling. Believe it or not, I genuinely don’t. It’s easy for me or anyone to do that, and it doesn’t help you.
What I want is to share data with you that you might not have seen, have you say to yourself “that’s interesting,” and just think about what the near future might look like.
That’s not panic. That’s the most powerful financial tool you have right now — understanding what’s actually happening instead of reacting to what someone told you is happening.
— Steve